4.8 Further reading
Many forecasting textbooks ignore judgmental forecasting altogether. Here are three which do cover it in some detail.
- Chapter 11 of Ord et al. (2017) provides an excellent review of some of the same topics as this chapter, but also includes using judgement to assessing forecast uncertainty, and forecasting using prediction markets.
- Goodwin & Wright (2009) is a book-length treatment of the use of judgement in decision making by two of the leading researchers in the field.
- Kahn (2006) covers techniques for new product forecasting, where judgmental methods play an important role.
There have been some helpful survey papers on judgmental forecasting published in the last 20 years. We have found these three particularly helpful.
Some helpful papers on individual judgmental forecasting methods are listed in the table below.
|Forecasting Method||Recommended papers|
|Delphi||Rowe & Wright (1999)|
|Adjustments||Sanders et al. (2005)|
|Eroglu & Croxton (2010)|
|Franses & Legerstee (2013)|
|Analogy||Green & Armstrong (2007)|
|Scenarios||Önkal, Sayım, & Gönül (2012)|
|Customer intentions||Morwitz, Steckel, & Gupta (2007)|
Eroglu, C., & Croxton, K. L. (2010). Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(1), 116–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.02.005
Fildes, R., & Goodwin, P. (2007a). Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting. Interfaces, 37(6), 570–576. https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.1070.0309
Fildes, R., & Goodwin, P. (2007b). Good and bad judgment in forecasting: Lessons from four companies. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (8), 5–10. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Paul_Goodwin/publication/5055580_Good_and_Bad_Judgment_in_Forecasting_Lessons_from_Four_Companies/links/577285f608aeeec389540ba2/Good-and-Bad-Judgment-in-Forecasting-Lessons-from-Four-Companies
Franses, P. H., & Legerstee, R. (2013). Do statistical forecasting models for SKU-level data benefit from including past expert knowledge? International Journal of Forecasting, 29(1), 80–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.05.008
Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2009). Decision analysis for management judgment (4th ed). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. [Amazon]
Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Structured analogies for forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 365–376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.005
Harvey, N. (2001). Improving judgment in forecasting. In J. S. Armstrong (Ed.), Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners (pp. 59–80). Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_4
Kahn, K. B. (2006). New product forecasting: An applied approach. M.E. Sharp. [Amazon]
Morwitz, V. G., Steckel, J. H., & Gupta, A. (2007). When do purchase intentions predict sales? International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 347–364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.015
Ord, J. K., Fildes, R., & Kourentzes, N. (2017). Principles of business forecasting (2nd ed.). Wessex Press Publishing Co. [Amazon]
Önkal, D., Sayım, K. Z., & Gönül, M. S. (2012). Scenarios as channels of forecast advice. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80, 772–788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.015
Rowe, G. (2007). A guide to Delphi. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (8), 11–16. https://foresight.forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/Foresight_Issue8_Guide-to-Delphi.pdf
Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 353–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7
Sanders, N., Goodwin, P., Önkal, D., Gönül, M. S., Harvey, N., Lee, A., & Kjolso, L. (2005). When and how should statistical forecasts be judgmentally adjusted? Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 1(1), 5–23. http://www.forecastpro.com/Trends/pdf/Nada%20Sanders%20Judgmental%20Adjustments%20to%20Statistical%20Forecasts%20July%202008.pdf