4.8 Further reading

Many forecasting textbooks ignore judgmental forecasting altogether. Here are three which do cover it in some detail.

  • Chapter 11 of Ord, Fildes, & Kourentzes (2017) provides an excellent review of some of the same topics as this chapter, but also includes using judgement to assessing forecast uncertainty, and forecasting using prediction markets.
  • Goodwin & Wright (2009) is a book-length treatment of the use of judgement in decision making by two of the leading researchers in the field.
  • Kahn (2006) covers techniques for new product forecasting, where judgmental methods play an important role.

There have been some helpful survey papers on judgmental forecasting published in the last 20 years. We have found these three particularly helpful.

Some helpful papers on individual judgmental forecasting methods are listed in the table below.

Forecasting Method Recommended papers
Delphi Rowe & Wright (1999)
Rowe (2007)
Adjustments Sanders et al. (2005)
Eroglu & Croxton (2010)
Franses & Legerstee (2013)
Analogy Green & Armstrong (2007)
Scenarios Önkal, Sayım, & Gönül (2013)
Customer intentions Morwitz, Steckel, & Gupta (2007)