5.11 Further reading
- Ord et al. (2017) provides further discussion of simple benchmark forecasting methods.
- A review of forecast evaluation methods is given in Hyndman & Koehler (2006), looking at the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. This is the paper that introduced the MASE as a general-purpose forecast accuracy measure.
- For a discussion of forecasting using STL, see Theodosiou (2011).
Hyndman, R. J., & Koehler, A. B. (2006). Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. International Journal of Forecasting, 22, 679–688. https://robjhyndman.com/publications/another-look-at-measures-of-forecast-accuracy/
Ord, J. K., Fildes, R., & Kourentzes, N. (2017). Principles of business forecasting (2nd ed.). Wessex Press Publishing Co. [Amazon]
Theodosiou, M. (2011). Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(4), 1178–1195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.11.002