Changelog

Changes made since the last print edition (2021)

  • YouTube videos added to start of many sections.
  • Typos fixed, and some wording improved for clarification or accuracy.
  • Switched pipe from %>% to |>.
  • Packages updated to latest CRAN versions.
  • ggtime package now used for graphics (instead of feasts)
  • Code updated to ensure it works with latest CRAN packages, and to use new features of some packages.

Preface

  • Link to YouTube playlist added.
  • Link to discussion forum added.

Chapter 1

  • Corrected description of Babylonian sheep liver forecasting (was “distribution of maggots in a rotten sheep’s liver”; now “appearance of a sheep’s liver”). Thanks to Srikanth Reddy for pointing out the error.
  • Corrected statement about Emperor Constantius II, and provided footnote to source.
  • Fixed date of the Vagrancy Act and provided a quote and footnote to source.

Chapter 2

  • Section 2.10: Merged two exercises (now Exercise 1).

Chapter 3

  • Section 3.6: Added reference to Bandara et al. (2025).

Chapter 5

  • Section 5.4: Discussion of portmanteau tests no longer uses degrees of freedom based on model parameters, except for ARIMA models.
  • Section 5.5: Corrected the residual standard deviation formula to include \(M\) (the number of missing residuals) in the denominator; corrected the drift method forecast standard deviation formula.
  • Section 5.5: Clarified the bootstrapped prediction intervals section, introducing \(y^*\) notation to distinguish simulated from observed values.

Chapter 9

  • Section 9.1: Updated explanation of KPSS unit root test p-values.
  • Section 9.7: Added subsection on portmanteau tests of residuals for ARIMA models.
  • Section 9.11: Removed Exercise 17 (which used Quandl).

Chapter 13

  • Section 13.2: Added a reference to Syntetos & Boylan (2001).
  • Section 13.4: Added a reference to Wang et al. (2023).

Appendix: For instructors

  • All solutions rewritten using quarto.
  • Slides used in videos added.
  • Past exams added.
  • Link to Python edition added.

Translations

  • Page added.

About the authors

  • Updated photos and bios.

Buy a print version

  • Updated to include many more Amazon sites.

Help and feedback

  • Form removed and link added to discussion forum.

Changelog

  • Page added.

Bibliography

  • Added Bandara et al. (2025).
  • Updated Panagiotelis et al. (2023).
  • Added Syntetos & Boylan (2001).
  • Added Wang et al. (2023).
  • Added DOI or Amazon links to bibliography entries where available.

Bibliography

Bandara, K., Hyndman, R. J., & Bergmeir, C. (2025). MSTL: A seasonal-trend decomposition algorithm for time series with multiple seasonal patterns. International J Operational Research, 52(1).
Panagiotelis, A., Gamakumara, P., Athanasopoulos, G., & Hyndman, R. J. (2023). Probabilistic forecast reconciliation: Properties, evaluation and score optimisation. European J Operational Research, 306(2), 693–706.
Syntetos, A. A., & Boylan, J. E. (2001). On the bias of intermittent demand estimates. International Journal of Production Economics, 71, 457–466.
Wang, X., Hyndman, R. J., Li, F., & Kang, Y. (2023). Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review. International J Forecasting, 39(4), 1518–1547.