11.7 Exercises
Consider the
PBS
data which has aggregation structureATC1/ATC2 * Concession * Type
.- Produce plots of the aggregated Scripts data by
Concession
,Type
andATC1
. - Forecast the PBS Scripts data using ETS, ARIMA and SNAIVE models, applied to all but the last three years of data.
- Reconcile each of the forecasts using MinT.
- Which type of model works best on the test set?
- Does the reconciliation improve the forecast accuracy?
- Why doesn’t the reconciliation make any difference to the SNAIVE forecasts?
- Produce plots of the aggregated Scripts data by
Repeat the
tourism
example from Section 11.4, but also evaluate the forecast distribution accuracy using CRPS skill scores. Which method does best on this measure?Repeat the
prison
example from Section 11.6, but using a bootstrap to generate the forecast distributions rather than assuming normality. Does it make much difference to the CRPS skill scores?