4.8 拓展阅读

书籍

主要文献

德尔菲法

调整

  • Sanders et al. (2005)
  • Eroglu & Croxton (2010)
  • Franses & Legerstee (2013)
  • Goodwin (2000)

类比

  • Green & Armstrong (2007)

情景

  • Önkal, Sayım, & Gönül (2012)

顾客意图

  • Morwitz, Steckel, & Gupta (2007)

参考文献

Eroglu, C., & Croxton, K. L. (2010). Biases in judgmental adjustments of statistical forecasts: The role of individual differences. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(1), 116–133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.02.005

Fildes, R., & Goodwin, P. (2007a). Against your better judgment? How organizations can improve their use of management judgment in forecasting. Interfaces, 37(6), 570–576. https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.1070.0309

Fildes, R., & Goodwin, P. (2007b). Good and bad judgment in forecasting: Lessons from four companies. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (8), 5–10. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Paul_Goodwin/publication/5055580_Good_and_Bad_Judgment_in_Forecasting_Lessons_from_Four_Companies/links/577285f608aeeec389540ba2/Good-and-Bad-Judgment-in-Forecasting-Lessons-from-Four-Companies

Franses, P. H., & Legerstee, R. (2013). Do statistical forecasting models for SKU-level data benefit from including past expert knowledge? International Journal of Forecasting, 29(1), 80–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.05.008

Goodwin, P. (2000). Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods. International Journal of Forecasting, 16(2), 261–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(00)00038-8

Goodwin, P., & Wright, G. (2009). Decision analysis for management judgment (4th ed). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. [Amazon]

Green, K. C., & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Structured analogies for forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 365–376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.005

Harvey, N. (2001). Improving judgment in forecasting. In J. S. Armstrong (Ed.), Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitioners (pp. 59–80). Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-306-47630-3_4

Kahn, K. B. (2006). New product forecasting: An applied approach. M.E. Sharp. [Amazon]

Morwitz, V. G., Steckel, J. H., & Gupta, A. (2007). When do purchase intentions predict sales? International Journal of Forecasting, 23(3), 347–364. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.015

Ord, J. K., Fildes, R., & Kourentzes, N. (2017). Principles of business forecasting (2nd ed.). Wessex Press Publishing Co. [Amazon]

Önkal, D., Sayım, K. Z., & Gönül, M. S. (2012). Scenarios as channels of forecast advice. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80, 772–788. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.015

Rowe, G. (2007). A guide to Delphi. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (8), 11–16. https://foresight.forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/Foresight_Issue8_Guide-to-Delphi.pdf

Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: Issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15, 353–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7

Sanders, N., Goodwin, P., Önkal, D., Gönül, M. S., Harvey, N., Lee, A., & Kjolso, L. (2005). When and how should statistical forecasts be judgmentally adjusted? Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 1(1), 5–23. http://www.forecastpro.com/Trends/pdf/Nada%20Sanders%20Judgmental%20Adjustments%20to%20Statistical%20Forecasts%20July%202008.pdf